Growth in East Africa is estimated to moderate to 4.2 percent in 2022 from 5.1 percent in 2021—and projected to rise to 5.0 percent in 2023 and 5.4 percent in 2024. While the production structure is relatively diversified, countries in the region are largely net importers of commodities and bear the brunt of high international prices in addition to recurrent climate shocks such as drought, particularly in the Horn of Africa.

The slowdown in 2022 was therefore mainly attributed to effects of these shocks, exacerbated by disruptions to global supply chains. Tight monetary and fiscal policy to rein in inflation has also constrained domestic household consumer demand, amplifying the effects of exogenous shocks on economic activity, home to some of the most fragile economies due to internal conflicts. Constrained household consumption was compounded by contractions in agriculture and manufacturing activities, weak private sector credit growth, and rising public sector debt.

The top growth performers in 2022 were Seychelles (8.3 percent), Rwanda (6.9 percent), and Kenya (5.5 percent). In contrast, fragility and structural weaknesses of South Sudan’s economy are likely to persist, with the recession projected to continue until 2023 before growth rebounds to 4.6 percent in 2024. Rwanda is projected to lead growth in this region in 2023 and 2024, at rates above 7 percent, benefiting from raising infrastructure spending. Uganda and Ethiopia are also projected to grow strongly in 2023 and 2024, exceeding 5 percent on account of developments in the oil sector for Uganda and continued infrastructure spending for Ethiopia.